Moderation in the Making?

Not being a political scientist and lacking in any hard data regarding public opinion, I have been struck with the results of the elections in Lebanon and the current presidential race in Iran. The Lebanon race is a bit harder to read in terms of popular sentiment, but one could argue that at least a plurality of voters who turned out are looking for a change away from Hizballah's "in your face" tactics. What exactly they are rejecting is unclear. The Washington Post argued yesterday that the majority of Saad Hariri's supporters are expecting a direct confrontation with Hizballah in order to overturn the group's veto right in the Lebanese parliament. Somehow, however, I doubt that all voters who favored Hariri's March 14 coalition want that knowing that such a confrontation risks an open rift with Hizballah, who still remains a powerful force in the country. So perhaps the election best represents a general shift towards the middle and away from the confrontational tactics that Hizballah best embodied, especially since the conflict with Israel in 2006.

Even more interesting is the campaign in Iran as it approaches election day on Friday. Again, take a look at this article in the Post on the pre-election atmosphere in Tehran. Some of the tactics being used by Mr. Mousavi's supporters seem almost directly in line with the energy and enthusiasm that President Obama was able to capture by harnessing social networking here in the US. At the end of the day, Mr. Ahmadinejad may in fact be re-elected but one cannot discount the strength of the support Mr. Mousavi has been able to garner and the creativity of his campaign, especially for Iran. The pictures that accompany the article in the Post are equally interesting since they represent a side of Iran not many people see, or have seen since Mr. Ahmadinejad's election. Mr. Mousavi appears to be tapping into a desire for change or at least moderation in Iran that his opponent continues to roundly reject. The Times has a nice synopsis of each of the candidate's positions on major issues that highlights this moderation in action.

US administration officials over the weekend called Lebanon the bellwether of the region. Certainly, Iran is not just a bellwether but a driver of events. With this in mind, what is really going on with the Arab/Persian electorate? Why the sudden lurch towards the political center? A few commentators over the weekend wondered if President Obama's speech might have influenced the outcome in Lebanon. Possibly, but could this also then account for the sudden frenzied support for Mr. Mousavi as well? Even more interesting is that the turns in the electorate in both countries seem to have taken most observers unawares. The Lebanon election was deemed to be a "surprising" outcome and as the Post article linked above notes even Mr. Mousavi has been surprised by the level of support he has received. Could it be that the region was simply waiting for an US administration that held out an olive branch? If Mr. Mousavi does get elected, the events of the past week in Lebanon and Iran might be the most damning condemnation of the Bush administration's policies in the Middle East yet.