Found this article in Business Middle East this morning. Think it's so well written that I don't have much to add but for a few additional issues to ponder.
http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=28882&t=1&c=34&cg=4&mset=1011
If SWFs have been a significant player in M&A activity, along with private equity, what happens now? A even greater slowing of investment capital globally?
If SWF investment is turned more inwardly, what is the outlook for US bond issuances? Who buys? (As readers of this blog know, this has been one of my biggest dilemmas when it comes to financing US fiscal imbalances.)
Will the global response to SWFs change? Will developed countries be more welcoming in the hopes of attracting what capital is left available for investment?
The one caution I have is that we have not seen the last of these entities. Surely as the sun shines, oil prices will go back up as the world comes out of recession. Structural issues in the oil industry and oil trading (everything from under-investment by the NOCs and IOCs to the continued opaque nature of over the counter trading) continue to hinder market "efficiencies" and I would expect the next time prices rise, it will be even faster and less rational than the last time. So when the fiscal surpluses start piling up, expect to see Mudabala and QIA on another shopping spree.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment